The Water Crisis in South Asia: A Looming Threat to Regional Stability
Authors: Shajia Sultana
Published : November 24, 2024
South Asia, home to a vast population and dynamic economies, faces an escalating water crisis that threatens its environmental stability, economic progress, and geopolitical balance. The six mainland countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) are grappling with diverse water-related challenges, with fresh water scarcity emerging as a critical concern. The crisis is compounded by the geopolitical sensitivity of shared transboundary rivers and is further intensified by two major developments: the long-term menace of climate change and the short-term acceleration of dam-building activities, particularly by China.
Fresh Water Scarcity in the Region
A report by the 2030 Water Resources Group reveals that India’s demand for fresh water could nearly double by 2030, reaching 1.5 trillion cubic meters. This increase, driven by rapid urbanization and population growth, is unsustainable under current water availability. A 2013 tri-nation study on the Indus Basin supports this alarming forecast. India’s population may rise to 1.7 billion and Pakistan’s to 275 million by 2050, while annual renewable water availability per capita may fall below 750 cubic meters—a threshold indicating absolute scarcity.
Meanwhile, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basin, the world’s second-largest river basin, shows troubling signs of water stress. In Bangladesh, though annual rainfall has remained steady, upstream changes such as glacial melt and water diversion have caused a 20% decline in dry season flow since 1960. This reduction poses serious risks to groundwater resources and agricultural productivity in the southwestern part of the country.
Bangladesh’s Water Security Challenges
Bangladesh relies heavily on cross-border rivers for surface water, with 91.4% of its water coming from 57 rivers originating in India and Myanmar. Therefore, decisions made by these upstream nations significantly affect Bangladesh’s water security. Ongoing dam construction and water diversion projects by India—particularly on the Ganges, Teesta, and Brahmaputra rivers—are exacerbating water shortages in Bangladesh. This vulnerability means that even the most efficient domestic water policies may fail if regional cooperation is not prioritized.
Climate Change: An Emerging Threat
The role of climate change in South Asia’s water crisis cannot be overstated. Rising temperatures, desertification, unpredictable monsoons, glacial retreat, and extreme weather events are all contributing to worsening water insecurity. Scientific data confirm that glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region are retreating at an accelerated pace, threatening the long-term water supply of rivers fed by glacial melt. The social consequences—displacement, food insecurity, and livelihood loss—are already more severe than previously projected.
China’s Dam-Building Activities on the Brahmaputra
Another pressing concern is China’s extensive dam-building on the Brahmaputra River, which originates in the Tibetan Plateau. Despite assurances from Beijing that its dams are “run-of-the-river” projects with minimal storage and negligible downstream impact, many experts remain skeptical. Brahma Chellaney, a noted strategic thinker, argues that China’s control of headwaters gives it significant leverage over neighboring countries, particularly India and Bangladesh. Despite having more large dams than any other country, China has no water-sharing treaties with its neighbors, raising concerns over unilateral control.
China’s aggressive water infrastructure development is largely motivated by domestic imperatives: to sustain economic growth and meet energy demands amid mounting water and energy shortages. However, the geopolitical implications of such projects cannot be ignored.
India’s Dam Projects and Their Impact on Bangladesh
India’s dam and barrage construction has significantly affected river flows into Bangladesh. Notable examples include:
- The Farakka Barrage on the Ganges River, referred to as the “Death Trap” for Bangladesh, causes an estimated loss of Tk5,000 crores annually. It has led to reduced water flow during the dry season, impacting agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and water supply for millions.
- The Tipaimukh Dam on the Barak River has reduced water availability in the Surma and Kushiyara rivers, impacting biodiversity and navigability.
- The Dambur Dam in Tripura, when opened after 31 years, led to severe flooding in multiple Bangladeshi districts, affecting over three million people.
- The Gazaldoba Barrage on the Teesta River has disrupted seasonal flow regulation. During the dry season, the riverbed dries up, while during the monsoon, sudden releases lead to floods. This has endangered about 30 rivers in the Nilphamari region.
These projects highlight the urgent need for cooperative river management and more equitable water-sharing agreements between India and Bangladesh.
A Call for Regional Cooperation
The water crisis in South Asia is a deeply complex and politically sensitive issue. It involves national interests, regional rivalries, and global environmental changes. China and India, as the upstream giants, bear a greater responsibility in managing transboundary water resources fairly and transparently. Sustainable, cooperative water governance involving all riparian nations is not just a necessity—it is a prerequisite for regional peace, food security, and climate resilience.Transparent information sharing, equitable distribution frameworks, and joint water management initiatives could transform this looming crisis into an opportunity for regional solidarity and sustainable development.
Shajia Sultana
Shajia Sultana is a recent Master’s graduate in History from Jagannath University, Dhaka. Her academic focus lies in historical studies with broader interests in education, women’s empowerment, and cultural heritage. Alongside her studies, she has worked as a part-time writer at Lecture Publication and served as a class representative, demonstrating strong communication and leadership skills. She is passionate about teaching and committed to contributing to national development through education. You can reach her at: shajiasultana363@gmail.com